The mobility revolution is coming, and consensus says it will be driven by advancements in shared mobility, connectivity, electrification and autonomous technologies. Given that transportation accounts for about 10% of our economy, nearly everyone will feel its effects. So yes, it’s sensible to wonder, “Am I ready for the revolution?” Here’s a look at four stakeholder groups who might have the most to gain - or lose - from the future of mobility.
1. Automakers. The auto industry is in for a major reshuffling of its value chain. When people start to purchase access, service providers - such as shared services operators and fleet managers - will become the revenue generators. What does this mean for auto manufacturers?
How they win: The automakers of the future need to develop services capabilities today, as well as stay in the race for autonomous vehicle development. The powerhouses of the future will combine both of these strengths.
How they lose: It’s easy to get caught up in this year’s record sales, but as new business models come to market, OEMs also must prepare for a services future. If not, they could be fighting for their share of an ever-shrinking pie.
2. Car dealers and other fleet services professionals. Dealers have been hearing for over a decade that technology will spell the end of their era. In reality, dealers have something that won’t be easy to replace - a broad physical footprint and highly-trained technicians.
How they win: The dealers who establish their stores as the go-to locations for mobility services activities are in line to win big. Many predict that vehicle miles traveled will increase significantly over time while the overall number of vehicles fall. Altogether, that means power shifts from manufacturing to maintenance and other services.
How they lose: Dealers have two ways they can look at mobility services: either as a threat to their current business, or a reality for which they must prepare. For the dealers who put up their defenses instead of building for the future, that future could be bleak.
3. Insurance companies. For decades, insurance companies have been using the same basic actuarial models to evaluate auto policies. Those models revolve around one car, one driver, and routinized behaviors. While insurers have been experimenting with Usage Based Insurance over the last decade, it still represents only 10% of the market.
How they win: Insurers win by effectively shifting their models to the new realities of shared use, large fleets, and big data. If they can develop the analytics necessary to utilize connected and shared vehicle data, they have a chance to win big.
How they lose: Insurers who maintain the status quo will struggle in an industry that is expected to shrink $25 billion by 2035. Ignoring the future is the surest way for insurers to seal their fate.
4. Your city's residents. This is why we at Launch Mobility are working to broaden the reach of mobility services: the mobility revolution promises freedom from vehicle ownership and the democratization of personal transportation. It allows us the ability to reclaim our city space for quality-of-life pursuits, including green space, pedestrian districts, and cleaner air. And with the maturation of autonomous technology, cities could nearly eliminate vehicle-related death and injury.
If, in the development of this future state we lose sight of those goals, it’s conceivable we could end up with more traffic, poorly maintained fleets, and closed networks that segregate us and choke resources from public transit. Residents and their elected representatives need to work with the stakeholders mentioned here to avoid these pitfalls.
The mobility revolution will cause significant disruption in major industries and change daily life. It’s still too early to tell who will benefit from the disruption, but the odds favor those who begin building today for the tomorrow that we all desire.